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The SIR dynamic model of infectious disease transmission and its analogy with chemical kinetics

13 May 2020, Version 5
Working Paper
This content is a preprint and has not undergone peer review at the time of posting.

Abstract

Mathematical models of the dynamics of infectious disease transmission are used to forecast epidemics and assess mitigation strategies. We reveal that the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model resembles a dynamic model of a batch reactor carrying out an autocatalytic reaction with catalyst deactivation. This analogy between disease transmission and chemical reactions allows chemists and chemical engineers to peer into dynamic models of infectious disease transmission and gives insights into the kinetics of autocatalytic reactions.

Keywords

dynamic models
reaction models
Epidemic modeling

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Version History

May 13, 2020 Version 5

Version Notes

version 0.4 - discuss replacement number and relate to other sections - make initial conditions more general so that threshold behavior is stated in terms of replacement number instead of the basic reproductive number (was awkward to consider initial condition of one infective corresponding to R0 when deterministic models are not very valid in this regime with only one infectious individual)

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The content is available under CC BY NC ND 4.0 [opens in a new tab]

DOI

10.26434/chemrxiv.12021342.v5
D O I: 10.26434/chemrxiv.12021342.v5 [opens in a new tab]

Author’s competing interest statement

None.

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