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The SIR dynamic model of infectious disease transmission and its analogy with chemical kinetics

13 April 2020, Version 3
Working Paper
This content is a preprint and has not undergone peer review at the time of posting.

Abstract

The classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) mathematical model of the dynamics of infectious disease transmission resembles a dynamic model of a batch reactor carrying out an auto-catalytic reaction with catalyst deactivation. By making this analogy between disease transmission and chemical reactions, chemists and chemical engineers can peer into dynamic models of infectious disease transmission used to forecast epidemics and assess mitigation strategies.

Keywords

dynamic models
reaction models
Epidemic modeling

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Version History

Apr 13, 2020 Version 3

Version Notes

version 0.2 - added flows to Fig. 1 for clarity - stated assumptions before model is posed, organized into clear sections. removed footnotes. - found another analogy with batch reactors connected by pipes representing immigration/emigration into/out of population - cited seminal math bio textbook - appendices now linked for more specific references and easy reading. - organized extensions to SIR model in a clear way. - mentioned popular SEIR model - explained mass action

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The content is available under CC BY NC ND 4.0 [opens in a new tab]

DOI

10.26434/chemrxiv.12021342.v3
D O I: 10.26434/chemrxiv.12021342.v3 [opens in a new tab]

Author’s competing interest statement

None.

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