Deep decarbonization plans are shallower than they appear

Regional decarbonization or climate action plans in the US generally ignore the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable electricity generation systems that occur beyond the operational stage. Our analysis of California’s prospective electricity sector changes through 2045 highlights the risks of omitting life cycle GHG emissions and their geographic variability in decarbonization planning. We demonstrate that the total GHG emissions of the proposed power sector in California through 2045 will be over 54% higher than reported by California’s Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality, even with optimized siting. The lack of life cycle accounting in decarbonization planning may lead to massive infrastructure changes and economic investments towards target emissions reductions that are ultimately insufficient to prevent or that may even contribute to worsening climate change.