Primary battery material supply configurations and domestic recycling costs – a U.S.-based landscape analysis for cost-effective battery material production

Battery cathode active material (CAM) costs hinge on regionally concentrated, price-volatile metal supply. We construct a regional facility-level cost model based on over 80 global lithium, cobalt, and nickel mines/refineries and battery-grade material plants. Our model yields aggregated NMC production material costs (USD/GWh CAM) from 392 region-based supply configurations per CAM. Focusing on the United States, all-domestic supply is 9–34% costlier than global average, increasing by cobalt content, while these shortfalls can be overcome by selective low-cost material imports. Furthermore, we analyze costs of two U.S.-based recycling facilities from primary data and techno-economic modelling, and compare resulting CAM-level costs to primary supply. Although still significantly higher on CAM cost-level, however, rising end-of-life flows and lowered black-mass prices make secondary supply cost-competitive to domestic and foreign primary supply cost floors. Facility-level benchmarks reveal targeted import, scaling, and production cost optimization as levers for a resilient, cost-effective U.S. battery-material supply chain.