MatFold: systematic insights into materials discovery models' performance through standardized cross-validation protocols

Machine learning (ML) models in the materials sciences that are validated by overly simplistic cross-validation (CV) protocols can yield biased performance estimates for downstream modeling or materials screening tasks. This can be particularly counterproductive for applications where the time and cost of failed validation efforts (experimental synthesis, characterization, and testing) are consequential. We propose a set of standardized and increasingly difficult splitting protocols for chemically and structurally motivated CV that can be followed to validate any ML model for materials discovery. Among several benefits, this enables systematic insights into model generalizability, improvability, and uncertainty, provides benchmarks for fair comparison between competing models with access to differing quantities of data, and systematically reduces possible data leakage through increasingly strict splitting protocols. A general-purpose, model-agnostic toolkit, MatFold, is provided to automate the construction of these CV splits and encourage further community use.