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Abstract
Carbon capture, utilisation and storage technologies are forecasted to significantly contribute to the decarbonisation of the power sector. Chemical solvent scrubbing is now considered the most mature CCUS technology. Yet, its integration with fossil fuel power plants is still expected to impose an efficiency penalty of at least 7% points, resulting in the cost of CO2 avoided of 35–75 €/tCO2. Carbonate looping has been demonstrated to be an emerging technology for decarbonisation of the power sector with lower efficiency (>5% points) and economic penalties (10–30 €/tCO2). The key challenge that can influence the viability of carbonate looping is the decay in the sorbent CO2 uptake. Such a deterioration in sorbent performance is usually accounted for in the techno-economic assessments via semi-empirical correlations. Yet, such correlations include fitting parameters derived based on experimental data associated with ±20% measurement error. This study employed a stochastic approach with the aim to quantify the impact of uncertainty in the sorbent characteristics on the techno-economic performance of carbonate looping retrofit to a 580 MWel coal-fired power plant. The stochastic assessment revealed that the most likely figures for the efficiency penalty would fall between 7.7% points and 8.7% points, with a median of 8.08% points. Such a figure was higher than the one determined using the deterministic approach (7.85% points). Moreover, the cost of CO2 avoided was shown to fall between 29.74 €/tCO2 and 46.50 €/tCO2, with a median of 35.94 €/tCO2. Such a figure was higher than that obtained in the deterministic assessment (32.40 €/tCO2), implying that the economic assessment using the deterministic approach could underestimate the costs associated with the carbonate looping retrofits. This study, therefore, revealed that the uncertainty in the sorbent characteristics would influence the techno-economic viability of the carbonate looping retrofits.
