Abstract
The
COVID-19 pandemic has stressed healthcare systems and supply lines, forcing
medical doctors to risk infection by decontaminating and reusing medical
personal protective equipment intended only for a single use. The uncertain
future of the pandemic is compounded by limited data on the ability of the responsible
virus, SARS-CoV-2, to survive across various climates, preventing
epidemiologists from accurately modeling its spread. However, a detailed
thermodynamic analysis of experimental data on the inactivation of SARS-CoV-2
and related coronaviruses can enable a fundamental understanding of their thermal
degradation that will help mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic and future outbreaks.
This paper introduces a thermodynamic model that synthesizes existing data into
an analytical framework built on first principles, including the Arrhenius
equation and the rate law, to accurately predict the temperature-dependent
inactivation of coronaviruses. The model provides much-needed thermal
sterilization guidelines for personal protective equipment, including masks,
and will also allow epidemiologists to incorporate the lifetime of SARS-CoV-2
as a continuous function of environmental temperature into models forecasting the
spread of coronaviruses across different climates and seasons.