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the SIR model and its analogy with chemical kinetics.pdf (428.45 kB)
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The SIR dynamic model of infectious disease transmission and its analogy with chemical kinetics

preprint
revised on 17.06.2020 and posted on 19.06.2020 by Cory Simon
Mathematical models of the dynamics of infectious disease transmission are used to forecast epidemics and assess mitigation strategies. We reveal that the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model resembles a dynamic model of a batch reactor carrying out an autocatalytic reaction with catalyst deactivation. This analogy between disease transmission and chemical reactions enables the cross-pollination of ideas between epidemic and chemical kinetic modeling.

History

Email Address of Submitting Author

cory.simon@oregonstate.edu

Institution

Oregon State University

Country

United States

ORCID For Submitting Author

0000-0002-8181-9178

Declaration of Conflict of Interest

None.

Version Notes

version 0.5 - contact network models - models with vectors like mosquitos - changing probabilistic dist'n of infectious time period - endemic equilibrium - added stochastic simulation - added last figure to showcase extensions intuitively

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