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Copy of Covid & air pollution in the US Round.pdf (6.46 MB)

Changes in criteria air pollution levels in the US before, during, and after Covid-19 stay-at-home orders: evidence from regulatory monitors

preprint
revised on 01.10.2020 and posted on 05.10.2020 by Bujin Bekbulat, Joshua S. Apte, Dylan B Millet, Allen Robinson, Kelley C. Wells, Julian D. Marshall, Albert Presto

The widespread and rapid social and economic changes from Covid-19 response might be expected to dramatically improve air quality. However, national monitoring data from the US Environmental Protection Agency for criteria pollutants (PM2.5, ozone, NO2, CO, PM10) provide inconsistent support for that expectation. Specifically, during stay-at-home orders, average PM2.5 levels were slightly higher (~10% of its multi-year interquartile range [IQR]) than expected; average ozone, NO2, CO, and PM10 levels were slightly lower (~30%, ~20%, ~27%, and ~1% of their IQR, respectively) than expected. The timing of peak anomaly, relative to the stay-at-home orders, varied by pollutant (ozone: 2 weeks before; NO2, CO: 3 weeks after; PM10: 2 weeks after); but, by 5-6 weeks after stay-at-home orders, the concentration anomalies appear to have ended. For PM2.5, ozone, CO, and PM10, no US state had lower-than-expected pollution levels for all weeks during stay-at-home-orders; for NO2, only Arizona had lower-than-expected levels for all weeks during stay-at-home orders. Our findings show that the enormous changes from the Covid response have not lowered PM2.5 levels across the US beyond their normal range of variability; for ozone, NO2, CO, and PM10 concentrations were lowered but the reduction was modest and transient.

Funding

Assistance Agreement No. R835873 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

History

Email Address of Submitting Author

bujinb@uw.edu

Institution

University of Washington

Country

USA

ORCID For Submitting Author

0000-0003-1918-8464

Declaration of Conflict of Interest

No conflict of interest

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