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V2_WrightPaper_Manuscript.pdf (1.36 MB)

Marrying Wright's Law to Thermodynamics for an Ideal Relative Final Cost-predicting Model of Carbon-fuel Substitution

revised on 30.01.2021, 01:38 and posted on 01.02.2021, 09:24 by Roland Hermann Pawelke
The problem of assessing the cost of C-fuel substitution is approached by means of a general interpretation of Wright's law and the introduction of the concept of thermodynamic utility which derives from energy carrier specific energy and storage state conditions. Via the Bienaymé–Chebyshev inequality, the ideal final cost ratio is determined at three different probabilities each with regard to compressed hydrogen, liquid hydrogen and Li-ion technology. The 96 % probability values supposedly balance insight and interval size best: however, cost-parity is not a result in any case. This paper points out evidence for the thesis that the subject of C-fuel substitution is governed by an intrinsic thermodynamic causality beyond economic and human factors, ultimately defining hidden pre-existing ideal baseline thresholds to the achievable in reality.


European Space Agency grant 4000105330/12/NL/CLP

European Defence Agency grant A-1341-RT-GP


Email Address of Submitting Author


FOTEC Forschungs- und Technologietransfer GmbH



ORCID For Submitting Author


Declaration of Conflict of Interest

No conflicts to declare.

Version Notes

V2: Revision of the initial V1 version; manuscript length is now 3500 words, some corrections have been made, metal hydrides are no longer part of the considerations; there are no ESI files anymore.